"Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?" — implied probability and
traded volume across ten days in which the market went from a coin flip to pricing a
Democrat as the clear favourite in a state no Democrat has won statewide since 1994.
Rebuilt from Polymarket's own fill history on market
0x34918035…e7f417.
Democrat
—
—
—
leading
Republican
—
—
—
Took the Democrat at even money and sold too soon? Replay it and see what holding on would have been worth.
Click the chart or drag the scrubber to set your bet's time and price, pick a side and stake, then place it. Move the playhead forward to compare cashing out at any point against carrying the position to today's price. The race isn't run yet — it resolves on election day, 3 November 2026 — so there is no settlement figure here, only the price path.
Entry
—
—
Value if sold here
—
—
Value if still held today
—
—
Implied probability & traded volume · Eastern Time