Action Network ยท Prediction Market Politics Survey

Where Prediction Market Users Trade Against Their Own Politics

A survey of 2,495 prediction market users finds 38.3% have bet against their own political preference for profit. Among the 10 states with a large enough sample to report, the willingness to do that for money ranges from 45.3% in California down to 28.0% in Illinois.

State rankings: politics-for-profit vs. midterm trading

Switch the view to compare the 10 states with a reliable sample size on either question. Select a state to see both figures side by side.

State-level figures are limited to states with at least 85 respondents among the 2,495 prediction market users surveyed. California tops both measures; Illinois is lowest on both.

State differences on trading against political beliefs

California's 45.3% is the highest of any state, but it's still well below the national rate for the youngest prediction market users. Illinois's 28.0% sits close to the rate among the oldest.

45.3% California, the highest state, is 9.5 points below the 54.8% rate among 18–24 year‑olds nationally.
28.0% Illinois, the lowest state, sits 1.5 points above the 26.5% rate among prediction market users 55 and older nationally.
State: traded against own politics National age range (55+ to 18–24)

The shaded band marks the national range across age groups among all prediction market users (26.5% for those 55 and older, up to 54.8% for 18–24 year‑olds). It is a national reference line, not a state-level age breakdown — no state-by-age cross-tab was fielded, so the band shows where each state's overall figure falls relative to the generational spread, not the age mix within that state.